LET ME BEGIN THE NEW YEAR BY TELLING YOU A STORY.....
Back in January 2008, the Equity markets across the globe collapsed so fast that for a moment I thought is there something stronger than the force of gravity!!
Analysts called it a normal correction due to excesses in the system.A few months into the correction, we finally made peace with the fact that the global economy is in a recession.
I remember reading a report released by HSBC when the Sensex was trading at 12500 odd levels. The report was titled 'INDIANS ARE THE ONLY BULLS LEFT IN THE WORLD' ( Hehe!)
Then when it dawned upon us that we are in a recession, we started calling the Sensex target for the downturn. I remember hearing absurd figures like 3000! Shankar Sharma, The BIG BEAR, of the Indian Markets forecasted that crude will come to 10$ and we are in a recession which will last for a decade! ( He seems to have a short term memory, a few months back he was bullish!!! )
The markets staged a comback from OCT 2008 lows.The pessimists called it bounce back of a Bear Market.Then we started putting targets on the target of the Bounce Back Rally! Some called it at 12500...others called it at 14000! But here we are, at the end of 2009 at a sensex level which nobody would have predicted in the beginning of 2008.
MORAL OF THE STORY : People love to make predictions. People love to hear predictions!
Again we stand at the beginning of a new year....and people ask me, what is your target for the Sensex in 2010?
I would like to take it one month to one quarter at a time! A whole lot of research goes into making annual predictions and markets are an ever changing dynamic phenomenon. So lets just leave it to The Shankar Sharmas of the world!
Have a great year ahead and Happy New Year once again :)
I WILL BE POSTING A DETAILED REPORT ON THE EXPECTATIONS AND CONCERNS THE EQUITY MARKET FACES FOR THE YEAR 2010...DO KEEP READING THE BLOG FOR UPDATES..
Regards,
Rahul T.
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